Since watching Terminator as a child, I have always been both fascinated and unreasonably terrified at the thought of technology taking over the world.
Of course, Skynet never actually took over the world and threatened to unseat the human race as the world's most dominant species. But I’ve got to imagine this is how life must have looked in the fictional world created by James Cameron in the 1984 blockbuster hit, with Google taking the torch from SkyNet.
Thankfully, rather than producing robot assassins that systematically kill off our species because of…. Well, reasons (the Terminator time-line always confused the hell out of me). Instead, opting to produce driver-less vehicles - an equally disturbing idea to some and certainly something you and I as people making a living in the transportation industry.
Google and the driver-less vehicle
Years ago, in 2009 to be exact, Google’s transportation division Waymo began working on and testing their pilot-less vehicles. Very recently this technology was given the go-ahead from the Department of Transportation - I want to say it was Arizona - to be used in commercial transportation service. A clear precursor to the next step in the Google plans to have driver-less semi-trucks.
And as a native of Atlanta (well from the age of seven at least) I am going to be able to have a front-row seat for the rollout of the Waymo beta testing set to begin in the coming months. You can be sure that I’ll be here to share with you my findings from the frontlines).
What does this mean for us in the region who make our living on the freeway? Well, it may not be as drastic of a change as we once thought, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be without turbulence.
Effects of driverless tech
The truck driver has been a symbol of American freedom since the inception of the big rig. Not to mention driving is among the most common occupations in the nation with 1.8 million people driving heaving machinery (a job, not dissimilar from journalists, that technology giants have set squarely in their crosshairs).
We’ve already seen the founder of Tesla, Elon Musk, cut the proverbial ribbon on his new electric-powered semi-truck that is “semi-autonomous” (pun intended) being able to move cargo with literally ZERO emissions.
The problem? Google and Uber are in a battle to put the drivers in the passenger seat. And by the way, putting the drivers out of commission isn’t just going to affect drivers themselves. It’s also threatening to put the many small trucking companies out of business as well.
The trucking industry is a 700-billion-dollar industry that only roughly 33% of that 7 hundred billion goes to compensating the drivers. If the tech giants can able to get their grubby greasy stingy fingers on some of that moolah, you can bet they will do so.
And who loses out when that happens? The companies who are unable to front the money to outfit their fleet with the technology necessary to make their vehicles autonomous - the little guys.
But that doesn’t just mean that they can’t afford the tech. It also necessitates the systematic replacement of those companies that still have to use good ole fashioned drivers to transport cargo.
If I need to have something delivered to me, and trucking company “A” can deliver my goods at a markedly lower price because they don’t have to pay labor; why then, would I go with company “B”? Well, if economics has taught us anything, it is that the consumer will always opt to go with what gives THEM the most value.
But before we blindly mock and criticize Silicon Valley executives for their choices, there are some questions we should ask ourselves.
What jobs will replace truck drivers?
Should we even be worried automated vehicles putting us out of work? There is already a shortage of drivers as it is if you need proof just go look on the back of your trailer. Do you see it, that “drivers wanted” sign plastered on the doors? This may very well do nothing more than help that shortage, and in turn, make cargo carrying an even more viable occupation
Besides, history teaches us that when one technology is invented, it is nearly always met with angst, disdain, and overall disgust. Hell, people actually hated on the automobile when it hit the market.
At every turn budding technology has been met with the same scathing comments, “this is going to put such and such out of business.” It was said when the telephone was invented; it was said when automobiles were invented, it was (and still is) even said about the innovations in solar energy, so it should come as no surprise that it is being said here. But what has always happened was more jobs were created by the new technology.
The issue here is where are we going to find millions of jobs for those potentially being put out of work.
Airplanes
No, this isn’t a new job opportunity we should start pursuing before robots take over as drivers. It is merely an example.
We’ve all heard of autopilot, and we all understand that it is used in all commercial aircraft. Yet, all commercial flights not only have an actual pilot in the cockpit, but they’ve even got a co-pilot in there. And for me, it doesn’t seem like a stretch to say the same will happen in semi-trucks.
Sure, the technology will be there to drive the truck without human interaction, but there will always be a need to have someone in the cockpit to correct any mistakes made, or just be there to take over if the system goes down.
Wrap - Up
I’m not sure exactly what the effects of automated vehicles will have on the trucking industry, and I’m inclined to believe anyone who thinks they do know, is merely blowing smoke up your ass.
But we all know this for sure, automated vehicles are coming. Scratch that, automated vehicles are already here. If we want to keep our occupations, we have got to figure out a way to turn that into a good thing. Otherwise, we’ll suffer the same fate as the horse and buggy operators of the 1800’s.
